Showing posts with label warning. Show all posts
Showing posts with label warning. Show all posts

Thursday, August 25, 2011

Flood warning issued for Dorset

24 August 2011 Last updated at 21:52 GMT Cars stuck in the water in Bournemouth PHOTO: Charles Raven A police car was among those stranded during flash floods last Thursday A warning for heavy rain and flash flooding has again been issued overnight for Dorset.

The Environment Agency and Met Office said heavy rain could affect the county between 23:00 BST on Wednesday and midday on Thursday.

There is a 30% chance of more than 50mm of rainfall in six hours in some areas.

Last Thursday, vehicles broke down, homes were flooded to "waist deep" and roads were closed after flash floods hit Dorset.

Dorset Police warned residents and motorists to take extra care and to seek regular weather updates from the Met Office.

A spokesman said that if localised flooding happened in urban areas, there was "potential for a number of surface water flooding incidents".

The worst-hit areas last week were Lulworth to Bournemouth and on to Christchurch.

Patients had to be evacuated from a private hospital after a ceiling was damaged because of the water.

Several people were rescued from vehicles stuck in flood water. Bournemouth's Lower and Central Gardens were also submerged.


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Wednesday, May 4, 2011

Warning over replacement for EMA

3 May 2011 Last updated at 17:42 GMT Ross Hawkins By Ross Hawkins Political correspondent, BBC News EMA protesters The scrapping of EMA became part of the wave of student protests during the winter Plans to replace the Education Maintenance Allowance could lead to unintended discrimination, according to a government equalities assessment.

It says discrimination could occur because schools and colleges will decide which students get bursaries.

Sixteen to 19-year-olds in full-time education or training will be able to apply for the money for the coming academic year.

The assessment says the government is considering "some central arbitration".

The Equality Impact Assessment says the process is open to unintended discrimination on the basis of disability, gender or ethnicity.

'Flexibility'

The Department for Education is to set up bursaries totalling £180m a year to replace the Education Maintenance Allowance (EMA), which was worth £500m a year.

They are designed to help young people who face financial difficulties stay on in education.

Announcing the plans to the House of Commons in March, Education Secretary Michael Gove said schools and colleges would have the freedom to allocate the bursaries because they were best placed to know the specific needs of their students.

He added then: "We will give professionals full flexibility over allocating support."

Continue reading the main story
He has taken a successful scheme that was good value for the taxpayer and turned it into a complete shambles”

End Quote Andy Burnham Shadow education secretary The Impact Assessment says : "We will consider whether there should be some central arbitration of the discretionary administration of funding or at least ensure transparency of administration to evaluate the impact achieved by providers, including value for public money."

A Department for Education spokesman said: "As we have always said schools and college will have freedom in how they allocate the bursaries to their students. We want to work with colleges to make sure that money is fairly allocated.

"The fact is consultation has not yet finished but we will consider what mechanism might help support colleges and students in making sure the money gets to those who need it."

The government's consultation on how the bursary scheme will work comes to an end this month.

The assessment goes on to say the new scheme will deliver better value for money. It says while some young people will get less money there is no evidence the changes in financial support will have a disproportionate effect on those with disabilities, learning difficulties, or on either gender or those of different ethnicities.

The shadow education secretary Andy Burnham said: "Michael Gove promised a better scheme for the poorest young people but now his own department says it is open to discrimination.

"He has taken a successful scheme that was good value for the taxpayer and turned it into a complete shambles."

James Mills, from the campaign to keep the EMA, said: "We have been saying since day one that there would be grave equality issues brought up by removing EMA and the government has finally admitted this by whispering it out in their own Equality Impact Assessment hoping no one would notice."


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Tuesday, May 3, 2011

Warning over excess thyroid drugs

29 April 2011 Last updated at 02:36 Thyroid gland The butterfly-shaped thyroid gland produces the hormone thyroxine Many elderly people may be taking "excessive" medication for their thyroid problems, increasing their fracture risk, researchers warn.

A synthetic hormone, thyroxine, is given to people whose thyroid glands produce too little naturally.

But writing in the British Medical Journal, researchers say having too much boosts fracture risk and doses may need to be reduced as people age.

A British expert said there was not enough research into the condition.

It has been estimated that 20% of older people are on long-term treatment for an underactive thyroid (hypothyroidism).

Patients are supposed to be checked regularly to ensure they are on the right dose, but for many it often remains unchanged into old age.

This can lead to people developing the opposite problem, an over-active thyroid - caused by having too much thyroxine - which can increase the risk of fractures, particularly in older women.

In this study, a team from the Women's College Research Institute in Toronto looked at 213,500 people aged 70 and over who had received at least one prescription for levothyroxine - the synthetic version of thyroxine - between 2002 and 2007.

'Unexpectedly low'

Participants were grouped into people who were currently on the medication, those who had stopped taking it between 15 and 180 days prior to study and those who had stopped taking it more than 180 days prior.

Just over 10% - 22,236 people - had had at least one fracture during the study period.

Those who were currently taking thyroxine, or who had recently stopped were at a significantly higher risk of experiencing fractures.

Writing in the BMJ, the researchers led by Dr Lorraine Lipscombe, said it suggested medication levels should be more closely monitored "in this vulnerable population".

In the same journal, Professor Graham Leese at Ninewells Hospital in Dundee, said ideal thyroxine doses may vary with age and be "unexpectedly low" in elderly people.

"It is 120 years since the effect of excess thyroid hormone on bone was first described, yet research in this area still lacks funding," he said.

"With the prevalence of treated hypothyroidism increasing, and the annual economic burden of fractures in the United Kingdom currently estimated at £5.1bn ($8.4bn), such research warrants a higher priority."


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Monday, May 2, 2011

'Immense damage' warning on fires

2 May 2011 Last updated at 03:23 GMT Scene of gorse fires in the Mourne Mountains The fire service in Northern Ireland says it has been battling flames as high as 40 feet The National Trust says gorse fires in the Mourne Mountains in County Down will cause "immense damage" as blazes continue around the UK.

Police in Northern Ireland are urging people to stay away from the affected area for several days.

Firefighters in Lancashire are tackling three separate moorland fires near Belmont, Bacup and Ormskirk.

Members of the public who are out on the moors in the dry weather have been warned to take extra care.

Firefighters from 60 of Northern Ireland's 68 stations are fighting gorse blazes.

Officials believe many of the fires were started deliberately. They say they could endanger lives, as resources are stretched and other calls for assistance cannot be responded to as quickly as usual.

More than 150 firefighters have been tackling the fires in Lancashire.

The bank holiday weekend has also seen fire crews being called into action in the Scottish Highlands and in parts of Wales.

The recent dry weather has been blamed for the spread of the fires.

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Monday, April 25, 2011

Warning over UK car-making future

23 April 2011 Last updated at 23:50 GMT Vauxhall Astra cars at Ellesmere Port in Cheshire Nick Reilly said the UK lost many of its small component-making firms decades ago The future of car making in the UK could be in danger if the industry fails to develop a British-based supply chain, the boss of Vauxhall has said.

Nick Reilly, chief executive of General Motors in Europe, said a lack of home-based parts manufacturers was the most critical issue facing the industry.

Mr Reilly told the BBC that car makers in the UK such as Nissan and Toyota were finding it difficult to compete.

This was because they had to import so many vehicle components, he said.

Mr Reilly said the situation added to shipping costs and created currency risks as well as a longer supply chain.

'Lack of suppliers'

The current government understood the problem but decisions taken decades ago meant the UK had lost many of its small component-making firms, Mr Reilly added.

"Our biggest issue is lack of suppliers in the UK," he said.

"In the 70s to 90s we gave up a lot of business. What it means is that at Luton [Vauxhall factory] we import a lot of components.

"If we don't have a decent amount of local suppliers it makes this place more difficult to be competitive."

He continued: "Frankly, I think it's the most critical issue facing the automotive industry in the UK.

"It's not enough to have Nissan, Toyota, Vauxhall manufacturing the products because we'll never be able to compete with another country where the suppliers are surrounding the car plants."

General Motors was forced into bankruptcy two years ago during the recession and is now majority controlled by the US and Canadian governments.

Car manufacturing at GM Europe's plants in Luton and Cheshire have since been secured for the medium term.

It was confirmed in March that the Luton plant would build the new Vivaro van, produced jointly with Renault.


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Saturday, April 9, 2011

Statistics warning on survey cuts

8 April 2011 Last updated at 13:43 GMT Communities Secretary Eric Pickles Mr Pickles' departments plans to scrap the Citizenship Survey A regular survey of attitudes in England, which is due to be axed, is "too valuable to be lost", the UK's statistics chief has said.

Sir Michael Scholar has urged minister Eric Pickles to consider keeping the Citizenship Survey in some form.

He warned the government needed data to monitor its own policies and the survey had been used to provide information on David Cameron's Big Society initiative.

The government said its £4m cost was "unsustainable" at a time of cuts.

The Citizenship Survey, set up in 2001, asks adults in England questions on subjects including race equality, faith, attitudes towards violent extremism, volunteering and charitable giving and feelings about their community.

Sir Michael, chairman of the UK Statistics Authority, pointed out that it has been used to monitor the impact of policies and events such as the Olympics, the recession and equality impact assessments - as well as by other bodies which cannot afford their own surveys.

'Cheaper options'

In a letter to Communities Secretary Eric Pickles, Sir Michael said the statistics authority believed the Citizenship Survey was too valuable to be lost - and pointed out that government departments were among those to express concerns about it being axed in a consultation exercise.

He said the survey's data was in "widespread" use in government and was particularly relevant to a programme to measure "national well-being" announced last year and Prime Minister David Cameron's Big Society.

"In our view, these requirements need to be addressed afresh, whether by a decision to retain the Citizenship Survey in some form, or by other, cheaper options which may be available."

He suggested National Statistician Jil Matheson should meet Mr Pickles' department's own statisticians "to advise you on the most effective and cost-efficient way of meeting the statistical requirements which your consultation revealed".

The UK Statistics Authority said it intended to publish reports on the effects of cuts in statistical work and draw the government's attention to "any substantial impact" for those who rely on them.

But the Department for Communities and Local Government said the decision to end the survey was taken following an "open and transparent" consultation process.

"Every bit of the public sector needs to do its bit to tackle the last government's budget deficit - including the statistics community," a spokesman said.

"This is not a frontline service. Ministers would rather give money to charities and the voluntary sector than hand out blank cheques to opinion polling companies."


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Thursday, April 7, 2011

Principal's tuition fees warning

7 April 2011 Last updated at 06:26 GMT Students Prof Downes believes students should contribute between £3,000 and £4,000 a year A university principal is warning that political promises to keep tuition free for Scottish students may have to be broken after the Holyrood election.

Prof Pete Downes, who runs Dundee University, believes higher education will need more money than the next Scottish government can afford.

The SNP, Labour and the Liberal Democrats all say any funding gap can be filled without ending free tuition.

The Conservatives are calling for a graduate contribution.

Prof Downes told BBC Scotland a charge of between £3,000 and £4,000 for each year would be "quite reasonable".

He said that without that, Scottish universities might need an extra £200m a year to stay competitive when English institutions start charging top-up fees.

The professor warned that a funding gap could be greater than estimated

That estimate is more than double what the last Scottish government said would be needed.

Prof Downes said: "Undergraduate education is not a universal benefit - it's a benefit to about 45% of the school-leaving population.

"But the other areas of the public purse, like the National Health Service, school education and councils, are universal benefits, they benefit everybody irrespective of whether they go to university.

"So that's why I think graduates contributing in some way would be fair."


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Wednesday, February 16, 2011

Warning of MP expenses 'tragedy'

11 February 2011 Last updated at 04:04 GMT Palace of Westminster Many MPs have criticised the way the reformed expense system is run The new MPs' expenses system risks creating a "tragedy" by excluding poorer people from political life, a watchdog has warned.

Sir Christopher Kelly, chairman of the Committee on Standards in Public Life, said "insufficient attention" had been paid to supporting parliamentarians.

He said in particular people with young families could struggle to become MPs in future unless changes were made.

A list of 125 MPs whose claims had been rejected was published last week.

The body responsible - the Independent Parliamentary Standards Authority (Ipsa) - took control of the administration of MPs' allowances last year, following the expenses scandal of 2009.

Sir Christopher said its creation had been "one of the most important steps taken to restore public confidence".

'Teething difficulties'

But there was a risk that "insufficient attention" had been given to the primary function of the expenses regime: supporting MPs in doing their "important and difficult jobs".

Continue reading the main story
Ipsa was set up in a hurry, it was set up on the back of a scandal, a lot of ill feeling in the public mind about what MPs did”

End Quote Sir Christopher Kelly Committee on standards in public life Sir Christopher said: "The committee has seen much anecdotal evidence - including from their own conversations with individual MPs - that the current scheme as presently constituted is not yet succeeding in fully meeting that objective, even allowing for inevitable teething difficulties.

"It would be a tragedy if the implementation of an expenses scheme were to have the effect of inadvertently and unnecessarily limiting access to the role of MP for those with young families, caring responsibilities or other challenging personal circumstances."

'Ill feeling'

Sir Christopher blamed the way in which the new body had been set up for the potential problems and said its rules may need to change to reflect the reality of MP's daily lives.

He told BBC Radio 4's Today programme: "Ipsa was set up in a hurry, it was set up on the back of a scandal, a lot of ill feeling in the public mind about what MPs did.

"It's very important that one should never forget that the prime purpose of an expenses scheme for MPs, as it is for any other group of people with an expenses scheme, is to help them do their jobs properly.

"And there's enough anecdotal evidence and evidence from those MPs who talk to us to suggest that there are a number of things where IPSA may want to think again."

Since its introduction, Ipsa has been criticised by MPs for what they say are its excessive running costs and bureaucratic restrictions on claims.

In December, David Cameron told a meeting of Tory MPs the new expenses rules were "anti-family" and causing a "lot of pain and difficulty".

His aides said he was referring to issues such as MPs not being able to use expenses to transport their children to and from their constituencies.

The prime minister said he wanted to see a better system in place by April.

'No rush'

Sir Christopher said he hoped Ipsa would be prepared to modify the system where there was evidence that it was failing.

And it should also be prepared to give MPs advice on the implications of the new regulations - even though it was ultimately down to politicians to ensure claims were legitimate, he added.

Ipsa has said it may reconsider some aspects of the system, but adds that it is independent and will not be rushed into changes.

On Tuesday, Commons Speaker John Bercow also said the rules were "threatening both MPs' family lives and their capacity to discharge their duties as they fully wish".

He added: "Relatively modest changes to policies on accommodation, travel, the rental of offices and the staffing of them, combined with a reasonable flexibility in the use of members' budgets, would yield real benefits to members and constituents alike."


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Sunday, February 13, 2011

Miliband economy warning on visit

12 February 2011 Last updated at 15:09 GMT Ed Miliband: 'People are worried about a government that has a plan to cut jobs but has no plan to replace those jobs'

Ed Miliband has warned of signs of UK economic weakness, on his first visit to Wales as Labour leader.

Mr Miliband, who met business people in the Vale of Glamorgan, said unemployment should be falling faster.

He accused the UK government of taking a "big gamble" with the economy.

"What I see is an economy where there are real signs of weakness in terms of employment, in terms of growth and now inflation as well, " Mr Miliband told BBC Radio Wales.

"That's a bad combination."

He criticised the UK government and said there were "real signs of weakness" and it was making the wrong choices.

"I hope their gamble pays off but it is a big gamble."

His comments came after Justice Secretary Ken Clarke told the Daily Telegraph the middle classes were unaware of the scale of government spending cuts that will hit them this year.

Mr Miliband said: "Ken Clarke has warned this morning of some of the implications of the cuts being made. What you see is a government which has a plan to get rid of jobs in the public sector but not enough of a plan to replace them in the private sector."

Later, he said: "I think Ken Clarke needs to wake up and realise the middle classes across Britain are already very worried about the cuts and the impact they're having.

"That's why we're seeing such protests against, for example, the closure of local libraries that are happening across the United Kingdom."

"I hope that Ken Clarke's comments will make them think again and make sure that they have a plan B that they should be doing."

Party supporters

He said he welcomed all encouraging signs but the economy shrank in the last quarter, and part of the problem was too much money being taken out of the economy.

Continue reading the main story
I think that we have a chance of stopping this being a five year government but only if the Liberal Democrats realise that Nick Clegg is driving them off a cliff.”

End Quote Ed Miliband MP Labour leader Mr Miliband also told BBC Radio Wales Labour in Westminster could emulate some of the policies of the Welsh assembly government and praised the way Welsh students are being protected from the hike in students fees and the continuation of the maintenance grant.

"I think we can learn from some of the things Carwyn [Jones] is doing here as first minister and the Welsh Assembly Government is doing but unfortunately are not happening in England," he added.

After meeting local business leaders in Barry, Mr Miliband travelled to Cardiff to give his support to the Yes campaign on assembly powers, ahead of the referendum on 3 March.

He used a question and answer session with Labour supporters at the Wales Millennium Centre in Cardiff to say he did not think the current way in which Welsh laws are made "'makes sense".

Mr Miliband said: "I'm for a Yes vote because the idea that Carwyn and other ministers in the Welsh assembly government have to come back to London for order-making powers when they want to change things in a devolved area doesn't make sense.

'Not really listening'

"When it's legislation that is only affecting Wales, it should be made in Wales...and that's why I'm supportive of a Yes vote in the referendum."

He also accused the coalition in Westminster of being a "Conservative-led government propped up by Liberal Democrats."

Mr Miliband told supporters: "I don't think this is fated to be a five year government. I think that we have a chance of stopping this being a five year government but only if the Liberal Democrats realise that Nick Clegg is driving them off a cliff."

Nigel Dix, of the No campaign, said of Mr Miliband's visit: "He's not really listening to all Labour activists, councillors and party members in Wales.

"They have grave concerns of what is happening to devolution in Wales and at end of day he's playing into the hands of the separatists within Cardiff Bay by supporting the Yes camp."

He said it was a "recipe for breaking up the United Kingdom in the long run".


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Saturday, February 12, 2011

Clarke in warning to middle class

12 February 2011 Last updated at 14:26 GMT Ed Miliband: 'The government has a plan to cut jobs but has no plan to replace those jobs'

The middle classes are unaware of the scale of government spending cuts that will hit them this year, Justice Secretary Ken Clarke has said.

Mr Clarke said the coalition should be prepared for political difficulty when Middle England feels the full impact.

He told the Daily Telegraph he did not envisage a "quick rebound" for an economy in a "calamitous" state.

Labour leader Ed Miliband said the coalition had not thought out the implications of its strategy.

He told BBC Radio Wales: "What you see is a government which has a plan to get rid of jobs in the public sector but not enough of a plan to replace them in the private sector."

Continue reading the main story Terry Stiastny BBC political correspondent

Finding the balance between warning of tough economic times ahead on the one hand, and holding out the prospect of better ones on the other, has sometimes been tricky for this government.

Ken Clarke's views, which he's expressed in similar terms before, put him in the more pessimistic camp, believing that it will be a "long haul" back to economic recovery.

He is, of course, a former Chancellor, and describes himself in the interview as a "deficit hawk" - someone who believes the deficit must be tackled rigorously.

He agrees with the current Chancellor and the Prime Minister that cuts need to be made. The view from Downing Street is that David Cameron has also recently warned that this would be a tough year as those cuts begin to be implemented.

Mr Clarke is being rather more explicit about the potential political troubles for the coalition that he sees ahead in Middle England.

Mr Clarke told the Telegraph: "One reason we're going to get some political difficulty is that [while] the public knows we've got to do something about it, I don't think Middle England has quite taken on board the scale of the problem.

"That will emerge as the cuts start coming home this year. We've got to get on with it [but] it's going to be very difficult.

"If someone says it's not as bad as all that, I say [they] just don't realise the calamitous position we're in."

Shadow Treasury Chief Secretary Angela Eagle said Mr Clarke should be worried about "economic difficulty", not just political difficulty.

"The Tory-led government may have boasted before Christmas that Britain was recovering and out of the danger zone, but their decisions have meant the economy has now stalled and both unemployment and inflation are rising." she said.

"And this is before the full impact of the VAT hike and deep spending cuts have been felt."

She added: "Ken Clarke should come clean that his government made a political choice to reduce the deficit in this way. No other major economy is cutting this far and this fast."

In the interview, the justice secretary also questions Downing Street's hopes of limiting an extension of the vote in elections to prisoners serving up to one year, saying four years would be a more realistic figure.


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Friday, February 11, 2011

Child 'slow development' warning

11 February 2011 Last updated at 08:16 GMT By Dominic Hughes Health correspondent, BBC News Children reading Children are expected to be able to concentrate and share by five Nearly half of children in England are not reaching what teachers consider a good level of development by the age of five, public health experts say.

Achieving a good level of development by five is considered to be a guide to future health prospects.

The Marmot Review team examined local authority data and found inequalities in life expectancy, how long people lived disability-free and unemployment.

The government said it wanted to improve the health of the vulnerable.

Regular bedtimes

The report's authors, who last year published a groundbreaking study of health inequalities in the UK, looked at five key indicators that are used to predict future health: life expectancy, disability-free life expectancy, child development at five, young people out of work and households on means-tested benefits.

The assessment of children's development at the age of five is based on their behaviour and understanding.

Children should be able to share, self-motivate, co-operate and concentrate by the time they start school.

But the research, led by British Medical Association president Sir Michael Marmot, found 44% of all five-year-olds in England are not considered by their teachers to have reached that level.

Reading graph

That percentage rises to 58% in the London Borough of Haringey, followed by 55% in Brent, Newham and the County of Herefordshire.

Solihull in the West Midlands and Richmond upon Thames have the largest percentage of children (69%) achieving a good level of development.

Child development experts say simple things like reading to children every day, regular bedtimes - even cuddling your children - will have a positive impact on their development.

Research shows that for various reasons, poorer families are less likely to engage in these kinds of activities.

The difference in life expectancy in men between the poorest and the wealthiest - even within local council areas - is more than nine years for roughly half of the authorities in England.

For women the figure is about six years.

The gap is widest for men in Westminster at 17 years; for women it is 11 years in Halton and Newcastle-upon-Tyne.

Disability-free life expectancy measures the number of years a person can expect to live free of an illness or health problem that limits their daily activities.

The difference in disability-free life expectancy between the wealthiest and poorest men is 10 years in about half the local authority areas in England; for women it is nine years.

The Wirral had the widest gap of 20 years for men and 17 years for women.

'Inexpensive intervention'

Sir Michael said health inequalities cost people's lives and health, as well as tens of billions of pounds in lost productivity, healthcare and welfare payments.

"There are cohort studies that follow children from birth right through life to adulthood, and you can see that the circumstances in early childhood affect and health and health inequalities in adult life," he told BBC Radio 4's Today programme.

Continue reading the main story
These figures provide vital information that can be used to address the deep-seated health inequalities that are present in so many communities nationwide”

End Quote Dr John Middleton, Faculty of Public Health "There is no question that inequalities in society are, in large measure, responsible for inequalities in early child development.

"Now, a big part of that is parenting. If parents can't parent properly because they are poor, depressed, pressed in by circumstances ... then we need to be there to support those parents.

"I suspect that a simple intervention like reading to children every day is something that, if parents can't do it, others could step in and help. It can make a huge difference."

Sir Michael added: "There are data from Canada that suggest half the deficit in readiness for school associated with low income can be reversed by reading to children daily.

"It's been put to me that these sort of recommendations we are making in straitened economic circumstances are going to be difficult, but reading to children is not an expensive intervention."

Dr John Middleton, vice-president of the Faculty of Public Health, said the new information could help local authorities target resources when they take over responsibility for public health.

"These figures provide vital information that can be used to address the deep-seated health inequalities that are present in so many communities nationwide.

"Importantly, Marmot and his team have identified poverty and unemployment as key wider determinants of health, aspects that were somewhat neglected by the government in its recent Public Health White Paper.

"The challenge is now for local authorities, working together with public health colleagues and supported by national government initiatives, to invest money and expertise in addressing these inequalities."

But public health minister Anne Milton said the government was focusing on improving the health of vulnerable groups.

"We are also providing a ring-fenced public health budget, weighted towards the most deprived areas, to make sure resources are spent on preventative work, with incentives to improve the health of the poorest, the fastest.

"We will continue to prioritise health inequalities; care cannot be described as high quality if only some people are getting a good service."

graph

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Wednesday, February 9, 2011

Bernanke warning on unemployment

9 February 2011 Last updated at 16:40 GMT Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke Mr Bernanke said reducing the US budget deficit would not be easy The US unemployment rate will not return to pre-financial crisis levels for "several years", Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke has said.

Until the economy sees sustained and strong job creation, "we cannot consider the recovery to be truly established", he added.

Mr Bernanke also said the US government budget deficit, which rose sharply during the crisis, was "unsustainable".

The long-term challenges of reducing the deficit were "daunting", he added.

This was because the underlying reasons for the deficit were not additional government expenditure during the crisis, but "the ageing of the population and rapidly rising healthcare costs", he told the Congressional Committee on the Budget.

Citing Congressional Budget Office projections, Mr Bernanke said the current budget deficit of 9% of total economic output, or GDP, would fall to 5% in 2015, but then rise to 6.5% by the end of the decade.

Continue reading the main story
We have seen increased evidence that a self-sustaining recovery in consumer and business spending may be taking hold”

End Quote Ben Bernanke Federal Reserve chairman The budget deficit is the amount by which government expenditure exceeds its income in any given year, expressed as a percentage of GDP.

Total government debt is predicted to rise from 60% of GDP currently to 150% by 2030.

Mr Bernanke said that at current rates of borrowing, the US debt problem becomes "unbearable by 2035 or 2050".

However, he said government cutbacks needed to be long-term in nature, and that dramatic spending cuts now could jeopardise the economic recovery.

He said spending cuts or tax rises needed to be looked at through a 10-year window, where cuts would be phased in as time goes by.

This contrasts with the policies being put in place by a number of European countries, including the UK, which are designed to reduce government spending sharply in order to reduce budget deficits.

Job concerns

The Federal Reserve is currently half way through its second quantitative easing (QE) programme, under which it has pledged to pump $600bn into the economy to help boost demand.

Mr Bernanke said he thought the second programme had been successful, citing one study suggesting it had saved about three million jobs.

He said if the recovery looked to be a on a sustainable path in June, when the programme will end, and if inflation appears stable at about 2%, no more QE would be needed.

Mr Bernanke said that the US did not currently have a problem with inflation, and that the recovery had strengthened in "the past few months".

"We have seen increased evidence that a self-sustaining recovery in consumer and business spending may be taking hold," he said.

The Fed chairman also highlighted "notable declines in the unemployment rate in January and December".

However, he said moderate growth and reluctance among employers to hire new staff meant "it will be several years before the unemployment rate has returned to more normal level".

He said the bulk of unemployment was cyclical, but that if the jobless rate remained high - it currently stands at 9% - for long enough, then it would become more structural in nature.

He said it would take roughly 10 years to return to a sustainable unemployment rate of 5%-6% at current economic growth rates - in the final three months of last year the economy grew at an annualised rate of 3.2%.

However, Mr Bernanke said he expected growth to pick up in 2011.


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